Bangladesh-India Ties Harmed by New Delhi’s Reliance on Awami League: International Crisis Group

Bangladesh’s political parties should refrain from using anti-India sentiment as an electoral tool, while New Delhi must move away from its long-standing reliance on the Awami League as the sole pillar of bilateral relations, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG).

In its study titled “After the Golden Chapter: Bringing Bangladesh–India Relations Back on Track,” the Brussels-based nonprofit warned that India’s perceived dependence on the Awami League has negatively affected both Bangladesh’s domestic politics and long-term bilateral relations between the two neighbors.

The report recommends that India extend cooperation to Bangladesh’s next elected government, regardless of which party comes to power. In return, Dhaka’s future leadership should acknowledge and address India’s security concerns.

According to the ICG, New Delhi’s grievances have largely centered on Dr. Muhammad Yunus, including his long-standing ties with Western countries and his perceived adversarial stance toward India. Repeated requests from Dhaka for a Yunus–Modi meeting were declined, widening diplomatic distance. India’s suspension of Bangladeshi visas on security grounds further fueled public resentment, while the suspension of cross-border train services disrupted trade and people-to-people ties.

Quoting a former Indian diplomat on condition of anonymity, the report notes that India struggled to formulate a response after Sheikh Hasina lost power in August 2024. While some policymakers favored normalizing relations with Bangladesh, senior officials pushed for a more coercive approach, including attempts to undermine the legitimacy of the interim government.

New Delhi was also reportedly unsettled by Dr. Yunus’s visit to China, which broke diplomatic convention. Meanwhile, the spread of misinformation by sections of Indian media further strained relations.

Sheikh Hasina’s removal marked a major setback for India, the report says. During her 15-year rule, India was her most dependable ally, with New Delhi’s support helping the Awami League navigate three controversial elections. However, India’s close association with an increasingly unpopular leader fueled anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh.

Following Hasina’s ouster through a mass uprising, India found itself diplomatically isolated, and both countries have since struggled to repair ties.

The report notes that India is unlikely to fully normalize relations with Bangladesh’s interim government and is instead waiting for the February 12, 2026 national election. The poll offers a crucial opportunity to reset bilateral ties, the ICG argues.

New Delhi should prepare to engage constructively after the election, while Bangladeshi political parties should avoid anti-India rhetoric during campaigning.

With the Awami League barred from contesting, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely viewed as the frontrunner. Although India has historically had a strained relationship with the BNP, the report suggests that under the current political realities, the party may now represent the most viable option for safeguarding India’s strategic interests in Bangladesh.

The report highlights ongoing friction over border disputes, security risks, India’s perceived hegemonic behavior, and communal tensions. Since the mass uprising, both Dhaka and New Delhi have been locked in a cycle of mutual blame, each claiming willingness to repair relations while accusing the other of inaction.

Domestic politics on both sides may further complicate efforts to rebuild ties. In Bangladesh, stoking anti-India sentiment remains a common political strategy. In India, the BJP’s assertive foreign policy and heightened focus on illegal immigration risk deepening Bangladeshi resentment.

While the report considers the likelihood of state-to-state conflict low, it warns of potential increases in violent protests, communal attacks, border killings, and insurgent activity if tensions persist.

Ultimately, the ICG concludes that India’s belief that constructive relations with Bangladesh depend solely on the Awami League remaining in power has been detrimental—not only to Bangladesh’s political stability but also to the future of bilateral relations.