Bangladesh Navigates New Geopolitical Landscape Balancing India, China and the U.S., Says Former American Diplomat

Bangladesh is pursuing a new foreign policy direction following the political changes that took place after the August 2024 uprising, as it seeks to balance relations with India, China and the United States amid shifting regional geopolitics.

In a recent interview, John F. Danilovich, former U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission in Dhaka, shared his assessment of Bangladesh's evolving diplomatic priorities, the challenges in relations with India, and the country's efforts to maintain strategic ties with major global powers.

One of the key issues discussed was the continued stay of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in India and Dhaka's formal request for her extradition following her conviction on charges of crimes against humanity. Danilovich said the issue has created a significant psychological barrier in Bangladesh-India relations.

"Bangladesh and India are bound together by history and geography," he said, adding that the current BNP-led government appears to be pursuing a "slow but deliberate" approach in managing relations with New Delhi.

"The days of India's unquestioned dominance in Bangladesh are clearly over. The presence of Sheikh Hasina and her associates in India has become a major obstacle to bilateral relations. Neither government can afford to ignore public opinion on this issue," Danilovich said.

He also noted that misinformation and anti-Bangladesh narratives circulating in India ahead of elections in Assam and West Bengal have negatively influenced public opinion, making it more difficult for the two neighbours to restore normal relations.

Addressing growing discussions over Bangladesh's possible participation in the proposed China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor, Danilovich said Bangladesh needs greater foreign investment to diversify exports and create jobs.

He described China as an important market and source of investment, adding that expanding economic connectivity with Myanmar would be a natural step once stability returns to the country.

According to him, stronger economic ties with China would not necessarily undermine Bangladesh's relationship with the United States.

"If Bangladesh pursues smart and effective diplomacy, its economic engagement with China will not become a source of conflict with Washington," he said.

Commenting on the proposed humanitarian corridor to Myanmar's Rakhine State, Danilovich said Bangladesh cannot shoulder the long-term burden of hosting a large Rohingya refugee population on its own, particularly as international humanitarian assistance continues to decline.

He argued that engaging Myanmar and other stakeholders to improve conditions in Rakhine and facilitate the safe, voluntary and dignified repatriation of Rohingya refugees is a pragmatic policy. Much of the criticism surrounding the humanitarian corridor, he added, has been driven by misinformation and politically motivated narratives.

With the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) remaining largely inactive because of longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan, Bangladesh has been seeking to expand its diplomatic engagement through ASEAN and the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation.

Dhaka has already intensified efforts to become an ASEAN dialogue partner, a move that could further enhance the country's economic opportunities.

Danilovich welcomed Bangladesh's growing multilateral engagement and described the election of Foreign Minister Dr. Khalilur Rahman as President of the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly as a major diplomatic achievement for the country.

Since the political transition in 2024, Washington has been closely monitoring developments in Bangladesh, Danilovich said, expressing optimism about the future of bilateral relations.

He revealed that discussions are underway on the possibility of a free trade agreement or a broader strategic partnership between Bangladesh and the United States, which could further strengthen economic and security cooperation.

Danilovich also highlighted the growing and vibrant Bangladeshi-American community as a key driver of stronger people-to-people ties, saying it continues to play an important role in deepening relations between the two countries.