Oil Prices Jump after Israeli Attack on Iran

Oil prices jumped nearly 9% on June 13 to near multi-month highs after Israel launched strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about a disruption in Middle East oil supplies.

Brent crude futures were up $6.19, or around 8.9%, to $75.55/bbl at 1019 GMT, after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since Jan. 27. WTI was up $6.22, or 9.1%, at $74.26 after hitting $77.62, its highest level since Jan. 21.

June 13’s gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices.

Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on June 13 at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, while Iran has promised a harsh response.

President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear program, to put an end to the "next already planned attacks."

The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate.

The primary concern was whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. The key waterway had been at risk of impact from increased regional volatility previously but had not been affected so far, Hvalbye said.

No impact to oil flows in the region has been seen so far. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 MMbbl/d to 19 MMbbl/d of oil, condensate and fuel.

Analysts at consultancy Sparta Commodities said that any significant crude supply disruptions would lead to sour crude grades being marginally priced out of refineries in favor of light sweets.

Under a worst-case scenario, JPMorgan analysts said on June 12 that closing the strait or a retaliatory response from major oil producing countries in the region could lead to oil prices surging to $120/bbl to 130/bbl, nearly double their current base case forecast.

"The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week - our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance," said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad.

"Fundamentals show nearly all Iranian exports going to China, so Chinese discounted purchases would be most at risk here. OPEC+ spare capacity can provide the stabilizing force," he added. In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc.

An increase in oil prices would also dampen the outlook for the German economy, the economic institute DIW Berlin said on June 13. It is the only G7 nation that has recorded no economic growth for two consecutive years.

"The increased uncertainty speaks in favour of a higher risk premium on the oil price, which is why it is unlikely to fall below $70 on a sustained basis for the time being ... Fundamental data is taking a back seat in the current situation," analysts at Commerzbank said in a note.