JP Morgan Warns Oil Prices Could Surge Beyond $150 per Barrel if Strait of Hormuz Disruption Continues

According to the bank’s note, oil prices are expected to reach $120–$130 per barrel in the near future, with the situation likely escalating further if the crisis continues.

JP Morgan analysts said their core assumption is that the Strait of Hormuz disruption will ultimately be resolved through negotiations. However, until a solution is reached, the combination of a tight supply and reduced reserves is likely to keep prices elevated worldwide.

Considering current market dynamics, the bank predicts that oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel through the second quarter of 2026 or June. Prices could ease later in the year if the situation stabilizes and the strait is partially reopened.

The bank also highlighted a major risk: how long high oil prices persist will depend on the global economic trajectory. Prolonged elevated prices could severely reduce demand for goods and services worldwide, potentially triggering a global economic downturn.

The warning comes amid heightened volatility in international oil markets following President Donald Trump’s announcement to continue military actions in Iran. Experts note that the current upward trend in oil prices could have significant impacts not only on developing countries but also on the broader global economy.