US Not Behind July Mass Uprising Against Awami League, Says Expert Michael Kugelman

Many believe that the United States played an active role behind the scenes in the July mass uprising that led to the fall of the Awami League government. However, Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert from the US, has dismissed such claims as mere conspiracy theories.

Since Donald Trump took office in January this year, the dynamics of Dhaka-Washington relations have changed significantly. Kugelman believes that unlike the Biden administration, which prioritizes human rights and democracy, the Trump administration focused mainly on business and trade interests.

Michael Kugelman, Senior Fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation, said that Donald Trump suspended nearly all foreign aid and dismantled USAID. Trump reportedly dislikes ‘nation building,’ so the promises made by the Biden administration do not align with Trump’s approach.

When asked whether issues like democracy, human rights, and minority rights still remain part of bilateral discussions, Kugelman replied that these concerns have become history. Trump only follows a self-interest policy, with human rights and democracy not being his priorities. He prefers a transactional and business-oriented approach.

Kugelelman added that, in fact, Bangladesh is not a significant concern for the Trump administration. This may even be beneficial, as countries in focus, like India, have experienced various complexities in their relations with the US.

Regarding BNP Secretary-General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir’s worries about the rise of right-wing politics in Bangladesh, Kugelman said that religious right-wing groups have gained more political space over the past year. Problems will arise only if these groups engage in anti-democratic or violent activities, with terrorism being the greatest concern. Bangladesh has faced this challenge before.

He also noted that several individuals have recently been arrested on allegations of collusion with Pakistani groups, and this issue requires serious monitoring. Revenge politics and extreme polarization pose significant risks to Bangladesh. The banning of the Awami League has increased instability, and the BNP has a higher chance of coming to power in the next election, though violence during the elections remains a concern.

Kugelelman emphasized the importance of holding elections to meet these challenges. He said that following the mass uprising, public expectations of the government are monumental. Although instability has increased during this government’s tenure, public freedoms have also expanded compared to before.

On elections, the South Asia expert stressed the urgency of conducting them on time and fairly. Failure to do so could lead to new instability. While many initiatives began after the uprising, much work remains, and the new government will face tremendous pressure and expectations.

Lastly, Kugelman mentioned that following recent tariff policy changes, Bangladesh is under increased pressure to purchase goods from the United States.