Bangladesh Heads to Competitive Election Without Awami League on Ballot; Polls Put BNP Ahead

Bangladesh is set to hold its 13th National Parliamentary Election on February 12 in what observers describe as the country’s first genuinely competitive vote since 2008. For the first time in the nation’s history, the Awami League will not appear on the ballot.

The election comes after the dramatic political shift of August 2024, when a student-led mass uprising removed Sheikh Hasina from power, fundamentally reshaping Bangladesh’s political landscape.

An analysis of seven major national surveys — including studies conducted by the International Republican Institute, Innovision Consulting, and Narrative Consortium — suggests that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is on course to secure a functional parliamentary majority in the 300-seat legislature. However, the projected margin of victory remains highly uncertain.

What the Polls Show — and What They Don’t

All post-uprising surveys indicate that BNP is leading Jamaat-e-Islami nationally, though the gap varies significantly.

• The Narrative/IILD survey shows BNP ahead by just 1.1 percentage points.

• Innovision’s latest panel study puts BNP ahead by 21.8 points.

Analysts attribute the disparity to methodological differences. Narrative Consortium surveyed 22,174 respondents across 295 constituencies, providing a broad snapshot at a single point in time. Innovision, by contrast, re-interviewed 5,147 previously surveyed respondents, allowing it to track shifts in opinion over time — a method often considered more reliable in detecting political momentum.

The Awami League Vote Bank

A defining factor in this election is the redistribution of the Awami League’s traditional vote base. Historically, the party secured between 35% and 48% of the popular vote. With the party currently barred from political activity, nearly 40 million voters are effectively politically displaced.

According to CRF/BEPOS survey data, roughly half of former Awami voters are now leaning toward BNP, creating a structural advantage that could deliver a single-party majority.

Jamaat-e-Islami appears to be the second-largest beneficiary. Approximately 30% of former Awami voters say they now prefer an ইসলামপন্থী party. Analysts suggest two possible explanations: dissatisfaction with BNP’s local-level conduct toward Awami supporters, or a protest-driven shift aimed at validating claims that Bangladesh could drift toward religious politics in Hasina’s absence.

The FPTP Effect: Small Vote Gaps, Large Seat Swings

Bangladesh operates under a First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) electoral system, where the candidate with the highest vote total in each of the 300 single-member constituencies wins, regardless of margin.

This system tends to magnify small national vote differences into significant seat advantages.

According to the Narrative model, even if Jamaat trails BNP nationally by just 3–5 percentage points, the seat gap could widen to 60–100 seats due to BNP’s evenly distributed national support. Jamaat’s support, meanwhile, remains geographically concentrated in parts of the northwest and southwest.

However, current surveys projecting Jamaat’s support between 29% and 34% would represent a historic shift. The party has never previously secured more than 12% of the vote or more than 18 parliamentary seats.

Three Key Variables That Could Decide the Outcome

1. BNP Rebel Candidates

Internal divisions pose a major challenge for BNP. After being denied nominations, 92 party leaders are contesting as independent or “rebel” candidates across 79 constituencies. At least 46 of those seats feature rebels with significant local vote banks.

In straight two-way contests, BNP is expected to win comfortably. But in three-way races, Jamaat could prevail with as little as 35% of the vote. Electoral modeling suggests BNP could lose between 15 and 30 seats due to vote splitting.

2. Youth Voter Turnout

Generation Z voters now represent 44% of the electorate — approximately 56 million voters. Among first-time voters, 37.4% favor Jamaat, according to survey data.

If youth turnout exceeds the national average by 10–15 percentage points, Jamaat’s seat total could increase significantly. Conversely, lower youth turnout would sharply reduce its gains.

3. Undecided Voters

Between 15% and 35% of voters remain undecided across surveys. Narrative estimates 17% are still uncommitted, with 30% of them expressing distrust in all political parties.

If undecided voters split evenly, BNP’s lead likely holds. But if they break 2:1 in Jamaat’s favor, the race could tighten dramatically.

Seat Projections (300 Total Seats)

Majority threshold: 151 seats

Projected ranges:

• BNP and allies: 155–215

• Jamaat and NCP: 55–110

• Jatiya Party: 5–18

• Islami Andolon: 2–10

• Others/Independents: 10–35

Central forecast:

• BNP and allies: 185

• Jamaat and NCP: 80

• Jatiya Party: 10

• Islami Andolon: 5

• Others: 20

Four Possible Scenarios

1. BNP Landslide (50% probability)
BNP wins 185–215 seats, driven by strong turnout and consolidation of anti-Awami votes.

2. Narrow BNP Majority (20%)
BNP secures 155–185 seats, forming government but relying heavily on coalition partners.

3. Hung Parliament (20%)
BNP: 130–155 seats; Jamaat: 90–110 seats. Coalition negotiations dominate post-election politics.

4. Jamaat-Led Coalition Upset (10%)
Requires high youth turnout, extensive BNP vote splitting, and low participation among former Awami voters.

The Bottom Line

The central projection suggests BNP could win around 185 seats and form the next government. Jamaat may record its strongest parliamentary performance in history, potentially securing between 60 and 100 seats and emerging as the principal opposition force.

The uncertainty surrounding this election is less about who will win, and more about the margin of victory. The final outcome will hinge on three critical variables: the 17% undecided voters, the impact of BNP’s 92 rebel candidates, and whether Jamaat’s young supporters turn out in large numbers.

With 128 million registered voters casting ballots, the results could reshape Bangladesh’s political trajectory for a generation. Polling data suggests momentum favors BNP — but the volatility of the electorate means surprises remain possible.