Trump Immigration Crackdown Could Cost U.S. Billions in Tax Revenue

Experts say millions of undocumented immigrants living in the United States are increasingly avoiding filing income tax returns due to fears of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids and deportation efforts, creating significant economic consequences.

Tax advisers say anxiety among undocumented immigrants has intensified following policy changes under President Donald Trump, particularly proposals to share taxpayer information with immigration authorities. The cancellation of Child Tax Credit benefits for undocumented parents has also reduced incentives for immigrants to file taxes.

Tax service providers in Virginia and Maryland say the impact has already become severe.

Daisy Schmidt, owner of Cres Latino Tax Consultancy in Springfield, Virginia, said nearly 75 percent of her regular clients did not file taxes this year because of fears linked to ICE enforcement.

“Our main clients are from the Latino community,” Schmidt said. “Most of them refused to file taxes this year because of fear. Their message is clear: ‘If the government can deport me at any moment, why should I pay taxes?’”

Edgar Villacorta, owner of Latin Tax in Maryland and Virginia, reported a similar trend, saying 30 to 40 percent of his clients skipped filing tax returns this year. He added that many colleagues experienced similar declines.

Although undocumented immigrants generally lack legal work authorization, U.S. law still requires them to pay taxes. For years, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) maintained strict confidentiality protections for taxpayer information.

However, controversy emerged after the IRS signed an agreement last year that would have allowed undocumented immigrants’ names and addresses to be shared with the Department of Homeland Security, the parent agency overseeing immigration enforcement.

A federal court blocked the agreement in November, ruling it unlawful, but fear among immigrant communities has persisted.

According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, undocumented immigrants paid approximately $96.7 billion in taxes in 2022 alone. Many receive fewer tax refunds and credits than U.S. citizens, meaning they often pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes.

Research from Yale University’s Budget Lab estimates that reduced tax compliance among undocumented immigrants could lower federal revenues by between $147 billion and $479 billion over the next 10 years.

The IRS has also estimated that even a 1 percent drop in voluntary tax compliance can reduce annual government revenue by roughly $46 billion.

The tightening immigration policies are also affecting children.

Beginning in 2025, the Trump administration implemented a rule denying Child Tax Credit benefits to children whose parents are undocumented, even if the children themselves are U.S. citizens or permanent residents.

As a result, around 2.7 million children are expected to lose access to the tax benefit. The Child Tax Credit has long been considered one of the country’s most effective anti-poverty tools.

Analysts say the policy change has contributed to a rise in child poverty in the United States, with the rate increasing from 13 percent to 16 percent — affecting roughly 10 million to 11.4 million children.

A survey by the Urban Institute found that one in four members of immigrant families in the U.S. currently lives in fear of deportation.

Immigration law experts at the National Immigration Law Center have urged the Trump administration to comply fully with court rulings and guarantee taxpayer privacy protections so immigrants can safely re-enter the tax system.