The United Nations has warned that the economic fallout from the Iran war could push at least 32 million people into extreme poverty globally, with developing countries expected to be the hardest hit.
The alarming projection was published on Monday in a special report by the United Nations Development Programme amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding a fragile ceasefire. According to the agency, the conflict has triggered a “triple shock” to the global economy—comprising an energy crisis, food shortages, and slowing economic growth.
The report, highlighted by Richard Partington of The Guardian, warns that the crisis is reversing years of development progress, particularly in poorer regions where the impact is expected to be deeply unequal and long-lasting.
Alexander De Croo, Administrator of UNDP, emphasized the severity of the situation, stating that wars of this nature push development backward. He noted that even if the conflict were to end immediately and a ceasefire implemented, the negative impacts have already taken hold across societies and economies.
Following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in Tehran, global oil prices have surged sharply. At the same time, disruptions linked to Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz have severely affected global oil and gas supply chains.
The energy crisis has extended beyond electricity and transportation, significantly impacting fertilizer production and global shipping. Agricultural experts warn that this could create a “food security time bomb,” particularly in developing nations, as high fertilizer costs and shortages may drastically reduce global crop production in the coming months.
The report further cautions that without urgent international action, many countries could fall into prolonged economic recession. It serves as a warning to nations already struggling with high inflation and mounting debt burdens.
International development organizations stress that a ceasefire alone will not be sufficient. Coordinated global efforts will be necessary to address poverty and stabilize vulnerable economies. The UNDP warns that the progress made over the past decade in reducing extreme poverty is now under serious threat due to the ongoing crisis.
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