Hormuz Strait Shipping Disruptions May Continue Through May : U.S. Energy Agency

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has warned that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could remain heavily disrupted until the end of May, although the agency expects conditions to gradually improve beginning in June.

In a report released on Tuesday, the EIA stated that shipping operations in the strategic waterway may return to pre-conflict levels by the end of this year.

According to the agency, the ongoing tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel led to the suspension of approximately 10.5 million barrels of crude oil production per day in April across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain.

Nearly one-fifth of the world’s total oil supply is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints for global energy markets.

The report also projected that global oil inventories could decline by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day during the second quarter of the year. As a result, international Brent crude prices may remain close to $106 per barrel throughout May and June.

Meanwhile, the impact of the conflict is already being felt in the U.S. energy market. The EIA forecasts that gasoline prices in the United States could rise to around $3.88 per gallon.